Current Affairs

European Union leaders talk about defense. But where will they find billions to pay for them? | Paul Taylor


EUs leaders at a top with Keir Starmer in Brussels this week agreed that more spending urgently needed to support Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defenses. But they have not yet obtained how to finance it, how to spend it, or how its employees.

Nearly three years after Russia’s invasion of European security in Ukraine, there is a need for an immediate and sustainable increase in defense investment to rearm Kyiv and protect the continent from Russian aggression and Chinese confirmation. some Military leaders and Intelligence services She said Europe may have at least three to five years to prepare for a possible Russian attack on the NATO country. Others see a longer time schedule Eight years old As a result of Moscow’s heavy losses in Ukraine. But given the way Vladimir Putin did his review ideology, and he built the fake strategic economy and strategic partnerships with China, Iran and North Korea, the risk of confrontation increases clearly unless he is pushed to Ukraine.

Europe is already facing a Russian secret war in the territory of the European Union and around NATO and around it, with repeated vandalism, electronic attacks, misinformation, election interference and assassination attempts. In the last weeks alone, Russian and Chinese ships She was detained on suspicion of cutting it again and repeatedly cables below the sea in the Baltic Sea.

However, while building military deterrence in Europe is widely recognized after three decades, most European countries face financial restrictions due to low economic growth, high energy prices and self -deficit rules. We need more money to defend now, yet politicians do not dare take it from pensions, health care, education or luxury.

On Monday, European Union leaders agreed to explore the reduction of their strict financial bases to allow a significant increase in spending on the national defense, perhaps by exempting some or all military spending from accounts on debts or deficit or using the condition of emergency exclusion. A franchise of financial falcons such as the Germans and the Dutch. But this will not generate enough additional money enough quickly.

The clear answer is to borrow now and pay future defense budgets. Germany created a 100 billion euros (83 billion pounds) Through the national borrowing in 2022 to start catching a knee in the equipment of the Threadbare armed forces. When this program is exhausted in 2027, Berlin faces an annual hole of 30 billion euros to 40 billion euros in the defense budget just to achieve the current NATO goal of GDP, not to mention the alliance summit in June.

The dual challenge after the general elections in February will be to persuade the new Berlin government to overcome its extracting hatred to borrow for investment, and to persuade it that borrowing with European partners will provide more uproar to the euro, and perhaps more requests for the benefit of German defense companies, from borrowing at the national level. The previous looks easier than the latter.

Historically, wars were always fighting on credit. UK pay Its final loan in World War I in 2015, almost a century after the conflict ended, with the issuance of new bonds. It will be socially unacceptable and politically suicide in most Western European countries to finance an increase in defensive spending at the time of peace by reducing social spending. The only countries on the line of confrontation with Russia have raised their expenses beyond the NATO goal, with Poland’s arrival 4.1 % of GDP Last year, thank you in part for its healthy economic growth.

NATO Secretary -General, Mark Retty, argues that if European countries are spending more on defense, without reforming the old national purchasing systems, 4 % will not be sufficient. It is possible to “the big explosion” in European military capabilities and employees in the next decade, but only if the Europeans make up their investments in defense in a more intelligent and more cooperative way.

The best way is the alliance of European countries wishing to create a fund of up to 500 billion euros (416 billion pounds) through collective borrowing, to finance the equipment purchased in conjunction with the requirements of NATO power such as European air shield and missile the weather. like International Government FundWhich may be managed by the European Investment Bank (EIB) or another current institution, they would like it.

The money will be well available before the next budget enters the long term in the European Union in 2028, and European countries will enable the front loading of defensive spending and the required air defensive missiles urgently and other credit sets. At the same time, the money that is not used in the current European Union budget for regional development and the recovery of the Covid-19 to air conditioning, bridges, roads and railways for military mobility to help strengthen the eastern wing.

Moreover, the European Union’s finance ministers must direct EIB to change its lending guidelines to allow investment in the production of weapons and ammunition, and not only what is called double use technologies. This would refer to institutional and private investors that defense is the European public interest, in line with those environmental, social and governance principles that led some to get rid of the sector.

European Union governments have been torn if they would allow the European Union defense funds in the future of the third country, as Poland, Sweden and the Netherlands want, or limited them to defense companies owned and kingdoms in the European Union, as France insists. Looking at the limited production capacity in the defense sector in Europe after 30 years of shrinkage, countries must go further if they want to infiltrate quickly. Poland, for example, has turned into the United States and South Korea for most of its new tools. The United Kingdom and Turkey have strong space and defense industries that can contribute to increasing European defense if not closed.

There is another obstacle to strengthening European defense and is a lack of skilled employees of the armed forces, defense and cybersecurity companies. Several armies have shrunk to their lowest levels since the nineteenth century. While the countries of the North and Balt are back towards recruitment, which Finland has never abandoned, other European countries must build their reserves through training and regular exercises. They must also register young people of both sexes at the age of 18 to identify candidates and skills for the selective military and civil defense tasks. Women are the most unexploited resources for European defense.

The purpose of the exercise will be to persuade Russia that it will face a huge response to any attack on a European country, whether the United States comes to defend Europe or not. Investing in deterrence is therefore an investment in peace, to avoid war.

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