Current Affairs

How can Trump change the course of the war in Ukraine?


Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to end the war in Ukraine, which began, depending on your view, when Russia invaded Ukraine, in early 2022, or when it annexed Crimea and sparked separatism in eastern Ukraine eight years ago. Many Ukrainians fear that Trump — skeptical of sending more military aid to Ukraine and an admirer of Vladimir Putin — will force the Ukrainian government to agree to cede parts of its territory to Russia. At the same time, Ukrainians are clearly war-weary, and the Biden administration’s support has not been enough to turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor.

To talk about the war, I recently spoke by phone with Rod Thornton, an associate professor in the Department of Defense Studies at King’s College London and an expert on the Russian military, who has lived in both Moscow and Kiev. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we also discussed what the arrival of North Korean forces allied with Russia says about the state of the war, what Trump plans to promise Ukraine and Russia, and how the war could have ended. This is expected to happen if Kamala Harris wins the election.

How do you determine where the war is now?

It’s a state of stagnation. Yes, there are advances on various fronts, but only a few hundred meters or kilometers here and there. The only significant progress made by the Ukrainian side was in the Kursk region last August. This is what the Russians are now trying to solve by using North Korean forces.

Modern piece In New York times He said: Two seniors [Ukrainian] The officials said defending Ukraine’s interest in potential talks would not depend on territorial boundaries, which will likely be defined by the fighting, but on the guarantees in place to stabilize the ceasefire. For a long time, Ukrainians said they would not agree to any deal that would require them to give up territory. To me, this suggests that the Ukrainians believe that Trump will push for an agreement that will favor the Russians. The question now is not whether they will have to give up territory, but how to ensure that any peace lasts. How do you understand what that means practically?

Well, in practice, it’s very difficult to determine – just as it’s difficult to determine what might happen with Trump – but the idea is that he comes on both sides and says, “Okay, let’s hold the front line,” which is the front. The lines are where they are now. I think that will be Trump’s slogan. Putin may accept this because he is under great pressure at home to end this war in a way that appears beneficial to Russia and himself.

On the other hand, Zelensky will not appreciate keeping the front lines where they are now. But I think Trump will apply so much pressure that Zelensky will have no real choice. Zelensky himself is under internal pressure to end this war. People in Ukraine are tired of this, tired of the victims and the drain on the economy, and living in an environment of war. This allows Zelensky some leeway to accept the front lines where they are, without pressuring Russian forces to leave, which has been the Ukrainian position so far: They want Ukrainian territory completely free of Russian occupation. This is no longer in the cards. In many ways, both sides, Putin and Zelensky, may be amenable to what Trump suggests due to war weariness in both countries.

What is raised in times The question here is how Ukraine can trust that Russia, after reaching an agreement, will not simply try to seize more territory within six months, or ever. I am sure that Ukrainians will remember Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the separatism Russia encouraged in eastern Ukraine before and after. Even with a peace deal in place, the Russians continued to mess with the front lines, and then the full invasion of Ukraine occurred in 2022.

Trump might say to Putin: Accept this, or we will do x. Trump’s approach to politics is to make these threats, and I think Putin would accept them. Putin will not accept the withdrawal of Russian forces, and Trump will not force him to do so. Trump has already said, in essence, that Crimea has lost. Crimea has been lost, basically, since the beginning of the war, in 2014, when it all first started. I think the Ukrainians have to accept the fact that Crimea is lost. It is the eastern Donbass region where the real problems will emerge, if they do. But I think Trump is making a difference. Trump will tell Putin: Don’t use more aggression. Putin will listen to Trump.

If I were the Ukrainians, my worry would be that as we agree to give up more territory in the east, the Russian army will be stationed there, and the only hope we have that they won’t attack again is that. Donald Trump offers some kind of guarantee. That wouldn’t fill me with much confidence.

Well, no. But again what is the alternative? The alternative is for the Ukrainians to keep fighting and fighting and fighting without American financial support. If Trump were to use that as leverage on the Ukrainian side, saying, well, we’ve supported you financially and militarily, but we’re going to cut off the money unless you do that, then the Ukrainians aren’t really going to get that. option. Trump will hold their feet to the fire. He’ll say, accept this or we pull the plug. The Europeans do not have the money or military capacity to help the Ukrainians on their own. It is the United States that provides the money, military weight, intelligence sources, and satellites. If Trump stops this, what will the Ukrainians do?

So do you think that if Trump took office and said military aid to Ukraine was over, and then that aid actually stopped, that the Ukrainians would basically collapse?

Well, it’s not just US military aid; It is American financial aid. The Ukrainian economy is not working. It is supported only by Western money, and significantly by American money. We have to remember this factor. But you also have to take into account what I said earlier: war weariness in Ukraine, among the Ukrainian population. Yes, there are those who want to keep fighting the Russians, but for most of the population, they are tired of this war. It would not be a big problem for Zelensky if the front lines were kept intact, and Putin gave the Ukrainians a promise that he would not initiate any aggression in the future, at least while Trump is in office.

But just to return to my question: If an agreement is not reached and American aid stops — military and financial aid — do you think Ukraine will essentially lose the war?

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