We cannot know if Vladimir Putin will accept the ceasefire in Ukraine. But this is what he will think about Euricia Lotsivich
AT at this stage of the crisis, it is important to be clear. The United States meeting in Jeddah was the process of controlling the damage. Both parties resetly reset the relationships that have been damaged by the patience of Washington. The United States reflected its previous decisions in exchange for something that Ukraine was ready to present in any case: distinctive access to the wealth of natural resources in Ukraine and preparing to start the peace process.
It is encouraging to see a renewed dialogue from the United States of Ukraine to end the war. As Churchill saidThe only worst of fighting with allies is fighting without them. General Squadron in the Oval OfficeCalling Volodymyr Zelenskyy dictator and stood in military support and intelligence was difficult to understand. The Ukrainians asked why President Trump’s blame, pressure on the victim, and the protection of the aggressor. The “beautiful” Trump deal included the weakest and reassurance is stronger. It finds that it is normal to press the allies, whether it is Ukraine or Canada, and relax it on the opponents.
Perhaps this week’s meeting in Jeddah was an effort by the White House to balance the pressure scale and expose the real intentions of Vladimir Putin. By the beginning of this week, the United States lifted the intelligence -sharing and resumed security assistance. This intelligence is crucial to defending the Ukrainian cities of night air explosions. American satellite and communications images maintain many targeting and air defense platforms. The night that delegations met in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a port Odessa was injuredFour people were killed in a blow on the grain ship. Ukraine has launched a defensive war, and the White House may have understood that the best influence of Putin is strong and equipped with the Ukrainian armed forces.
No one wants peace more than Ukraine. When President Trump was accused Zelenskyy from the unwillingness of peace, it should have been greatly pleased with the Kremlin. Trump was reading Russian talk points. The United States meeting dismissed this falsehood and showed Kiev construction and cooperation.
Joint statement She notes that “Ukraine expressed its willingness to accept the American proposal to not immediately stopping for 30 days, which can be extended by the mutual agreement of the parties, which is subject to acceptance and coinciding with the Russian Federation.”
So what will be Putin’s step? I think his agreement to the ceasefire will be driven by two workers: whether his country can remain in the struggle for a much longer period and the terms of the arrangement imposed on Ukraine. Putin may decide that the costs of losing a seat on the superpower table with the American president outperform any benefits to overcome some other villages in eastern Ukraine. Therefore, Putin may settle on a ceasefire that achieves his temporary gains: he gets his “gray region” with Ukraine’s weakness outside NATO and a war that could not be reshaped at any time. This means that Ukraine will need to continue spending a large part of its national budget on defense, striving for its economy and struggling to provide the European Union integration agenda. Putin, at the same time, gets a safe “land bridge” that connects Crimea in Russia via the Azov Sea coast.
The ceasefire would the gift of Russia’s economic relief, which is needed and buy time to reshape its military. Given the continuous destruction of Ukraine for Russian oil refineries, it will need time to rebuild them as well. For this, raising Western energy sanctions will be a key to obtaining new equipment. A temporary stop to reassemble the workforce, because Ukraine was killed or wounded Nearly 80 % of the ground forces that Russia mobilized for this war. Its struggle to take large parts of Ukraine is due to a deficiency of men and equipment.
The final incentive to stop the war may come from Putin’s confidence in his ability to destroy Ukraine from within. The last insistence in the United States on the elections and calls Zelenskyy to resign is also part of the Kremlin plans. Putin is determined to destroy the Zelisenic government. The scenario of the gray region enables the forces of chaos, which is fed by misleading information, to harm the pro -democracy parties. The blame will fall on this situation, not the peace war on Zelenskyy. Summary issues in the war, and the lack of foreign investment and the new external flows of people when raising travel restrictions make the ceasefire fraught with risk to Ukraine. The ceasefire, which does not lead to Adel’s settlement, will exacerbate regional security in the long run.
It may not “have all the cards”, but it does not deceive when it says it will not give in to the demands of Moscow. Zelenskyy’s support is still high. Despite its difficulties with the workforce, only 38 % of Ukrainians believe that Kiev should agree to abandon the sovereign lands of Ukraine to Russia. This is mainly driven by the understanding that Russia is launching a collective war to destroy the Ukrainian nation – 87 % of Ukrainians believe that Moscow will not stop at the current front lines.
If the United States can reduce and press Russian appetite to deal with a ceasefire as a start to a real settlement, then peace has a chance. If not, this will create a swamp that drowns Ukraine and weakens the rest of Europe. Moscow Indeed in a non -kinetic war with the West; but Western intelligence reviews It turns out that she is preparing for a “hot” traditional conflict. These peace negotiation risks cannot be higher.