Will Hurricane Helen flip the vote in North Carolina?

AAbout the map Buncombe County election organizers spread out at a table, surveying the terrain like generals planning an attack. “The bridge is here, but there is another way,” points out Corinne Duncan, elections director. They are trying to move polling places that were damaged by Hurricane Helen last month. The red arrow shows where the emergency tent in the café’s car park will house the polling booths.

There are nearly 1.3 million registered voters in the 25 counties devastated by the storm, adopting special voting rules in the wake of the disaster. The presence of these voters in large numbers may be a factor in the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. In 2020, when Trump won North Carolina and its 16 electoral college votes by just over 1%, he won 23 of the 25 affected counties and bested Joe Biden there by more than 200,000 votes. Low turnout this fall could hurt either candidate, but Trump appears more vulnerable. He received 21% of his statewide votes in the district last time, compared to 13% for Biden.

The participation will also be an indicator of the recovery of towns affected by the confirmed deaths of nearly 100 people, with more than 20 missing. Four weeks later, the floods had receded and trees and mudslides had been removed from the roads. However, reliable access to drinking water may take months, and in some areas the storm has damaged roads and buildings. Democrats have largely halted campaigning, citing concerns about the safety of residents and staff, as well as damaged offices. Vote counting will resume in areas where water and electricity are available reliably. “We have to face the fact that the election is going on, and this is the most important election of our lives,” says Sam Edney, chairman of the Transylvania County Democratic Party.

North Carolinians have for years given up on Election Day and embraced Election Month. Nearly two-thirds of voters cast early ballots in person in 2020. (The next most popular method was by mail, with only 16% participating on Election Day.) Early voting this year began on October 17. Officials here regularly devote 16 hours a day to opening new polling stations and communicating with voters.

The initial turnout was impressive. In McDowell County, on the first day of early voting, police had to direct traffic in a crowded parking lot near the polling site. “Nothing will stop me from voting,” declared a 68-year-old man in Asheville, pulling on a warm jacket to wait in a long line. However, there were signs of declining participation overall. During the first two days, early in-person voting in all counties affected by the storm was 1 percentage point lower than in 2020, compared to higher turnout in other counties.

In Buncombe County, which includes Asheville, the region’s largest city, one-fifth of precincts changed hands on Election Day because they sustained damage or are being used for emergency response. The administrators themselves have been displaced: the number of available early voting workers has fallen by a third. With TV outages and no internet access, telling people about changes at polling places is “the biggest challenge we face today,” says Jake Quinn, chairman of the Buncombe Board of Elections. Rural McDowell County is sending letters to every voter; There are contingency plans for destroyed mailboxes.

Mr Quinn admits that meeting his original turnout target of 80% of registered voters may no longer be possible as people focus on rebuilding their lives. An 80-year-old woman in Asheville said she “never had a hard time voting” because “every place seemed closed.” (Your correspondent met her at the elections office, which settled most of her issues.) “The thing that’s going to be a big problem for us is confusion,” Edney says.

Campaigns had to be reset as well. Among other things, they are posting new messages and replacing countless water-soaked grass signs. A recent poll conducted by the Harris campaign in the relatively undamaged town of Brevard found no one home since voters were evacuated after the storm. Without television, convincing casual voters would be as difficult for campaigns as it would be for election officials trying to explain where to vote.

Republican leaders say they are doing “whatever we can do,” as Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, put it during a campaign stop. However, he admits it will be “difficult” for some people affected by Helen to “focus on voting”. It is not unusual for victims of an unexpected disaster to lose confidence in their government, even when it provides rapid relief. “A lot of people say they haven’t seen it Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).says Chad Wolf, former acting Secretary of Homeland Security, referring to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. He believes this could change some minds and energize voters.

Trump, as always, goes much further. On October 21, the former president campaigned in Swannanoa, one of the hardest-hit cities. Trump falsely claimed this while standing in front of a pile of rubble Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Disaster relief money has been wasted on housing illegal immigrants. “A lot of money has disappeared,” he declared. This slander has appeared as Maga Offensive line. This and other misinformation is widespread in the region. Voters lining up in the town of Rutherfordton cited conspiracy theories about hidden deaths at nearby Lake Lure and Lake Lure. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Confiscation of charitable donations.

The air is redolent of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic and the government’s response angered a polarized electorate. Online rumors say the new voting rules, which passed unanimously in the state Assembly, are intended to encourage election fraud. With a sigh, local officials express confidence in their procedures. While distributing ballots to precinct leaders, a Buncombe County election worker discovered “a pattern here — Covid in 2020, and now this.” She stops. “asteroid [in] 2028.” ■

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